Which consumer confidence index is better?

Neither. The Conference Board index is more sensitive to the labour market, and the Michigan index to prices and household finances, so the right choice depends on the question.

Why do the two indexes have different levels?

They use different base years — Michigan is set to 1966 = 100 and the Conference Board to 1985 = 100 — so only their changes are comparable.

Does consumer sentiment predict consumer spending?

Weakly. Both surveys correlate with spending but neither adds much forecasting power beyond income and employment data.

When is each released?

Michigan publishes a preliminary reading mid-month and a final reading at month end; the Conference Board publishes on the last Tuesday of the month.

Michigan or Conference Board sentiment

The two long-running US consumer surveys ask different people different questions. Michigan leans on personal finances, the Conference Board leans on the labour market, and that single difference explains most of the times they diverge.

At a glance

Measure	Latest	Period	Published by	Frequency
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	51.7	Aug 2026	University of Michigan	Monthly
Michigan — current conditions	51.9	Aug 2026	University of Michigan	Monthly
Michigan — expectations	51.5	Aug 2026	University of Michigan	Monthly
Conference Board Consumer Confidence	89.4	Aug 2026	The Conference Board	Monthly
Conference Board — present situation	121.2	Aug 2026	The Conference Board	Monthly
Conference Board — expectations	68.2	Aug 2026	The Conference Board	Monthly

How each one is built

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: Method: Telephone survey of about 600 households, five core questions, 1966 = 100; Covers: Personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions for durables; Released: Preliminary mid-month, final end of month
Michigan — current conditions: Method: The two questions about finances and buying conditions now; Covers: The present-tense half of the survey; Released: With the headline index
Michigan — expectations: Method: The three forward-looking questions; a component of the Conference Board LEI; Covers: One and five years ahead; Released: With the headline index
Conference Board Consumer Confidence: Method: Online survey of about 3,000 households, 1985 = 100; Covers: Business conditions and, crucially, how easy it is to find a job; Released: Last Tuesday of the month
Conference Board — present situation: Method: Assessment of current business and labour market conditions; Covers: Includes the "jobs plentiful" minus "jobs hard to get" spread; Released: With the headline index
Conference Board — expectations: Method: Outlook for income, business and jobs six months ahead; Covers: Six-month horizon; Released: With the headline index

Why the two surveys diverge

The Conference Board asks directly about job availability, so its index tracks the unemployment rate closely. Michigan asks about household finances and buying conditions, so it tracks petrol prices and inflation closely. In a period of falling unemployment and high inflation the two can move in opposite directions for a year at a time, and neither is wrong.

The base years differ — 1966 for Michigan, 1985 for the Conference Board — so the index levels cannot be compared. The sample sizes and modes differ too: Michigan surveys about 600 households by telephone, the Conference Board about 3,000 online.

Which one to use

Use the Conference Board present-situation index, and particularly the "jobs plentiful minus jobs hard to get" spread, as a labour market indicator. It has historically turned ahead of the unemployment rate.

Use the Michigan expectations index when you want a component with a documented leading record — it is one of the ten inputs to the Conference Board Leading Economic Index — and the Michigan inflation expectation when you want the number the Federal Reserve is asked about at press conferences.

For consumer spending itself, neither survey forecasts well. Retail sales and real personal spending are the series to watch; sentiment describes mood, not outlays.

Frequently asked questions

Which consumer confidence index is better?: Neither. The Conference Board index is more sensitive to the labour market, and the Michigan index to prices and household finances, so the right choice depends on the question.
Why do the two indexes have different levels?: They use different base years — Michigan is set to 1966 = 100 and the Conference Board to 1985 = 100 — so only their changes are comparable.
Does consumer sentiment predict consumer spending?: Weakly. Both surveys correlate with spending but neither adds much forecasting power beyond income and employment data.
When is each released?: Michigan publishes a preliminary reading mid-month and a final reading at month end; the Conference Board publishes on the last Tuesday of the month.