France manufacturing smoothed surprise indicator (SA)
France manufacturing smoothed surprise indicator (SA) stood at -4.2 in Sep 2026, according to INSEE – Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (BDM). It is one of the indicators in the INSEE business surveys table (Value · Monthly), with a complete series running from Jun 1990 to Sep 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.
This indicator in the INSEE business surveys table
| Indicator | 09-2026 | 08-2026 | 07-2026 | 06-2026 | 05-2026 | 04-2026 | 03-2026 | 02-2026 | 01-2026 | 12-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly business survey in goods-producing industries - Manufacturing industry - Smoothed surprise indicator - SA series | -4.2 | -4.28 | -2.01 | -5.02 | -6.43 | -9.39 | -12.53 | -9.86 | -8.36 | -6.31 | |
| Economic outlook survey in services - Smoothed surprise indicator - SA series | 1.02 | -0.1 | -0.36 | -3.4 | -5.12 | -3.4 | -2.05 | -0.16 | -4.4 | -5.58 | |
| Monthly business survey in goods-producing industries - Manufacturing industry - Surprise indicator - SA series | -5.76 | -12.19 | 1.34 | -5.84 | -1.29 | -7.15 | -9.96 | -11.14 | -12.19 | -5.93 |
Understanding france manufacturing smoothed surprise indicator (SA)
Applying mathematical smoothing techniques to raw manufacturing survey outcomes, this indicator isolates persistent cyclical trends in industrial sentiment by filtering out high-frequency monthly noise. It aggregates smoothed data across all factory branches, differing from unsmoothed gauges by emphasizing medium-term trajectory over immediate single-month volatility. Service sector activities and retail trade are excluded, preserving an industrial focus designed to highlight true turning points in factory production.
When reading this smoothed series, analysts can more reliably identify cyclical peaks and troughs without being misled by temporary weather disruptions or erratic monthly survey swings. Month-on-month changes in the smoothed path indicate genuine acceleration or deceleration in industrial momentum. Because smoothing introduces a slight lag, researchers should use these figures for structural trend confirmation rather than real-time reaction to sudden supply chain shocks.
Frequently asked questions
- Why is mathematical smoothing applied to this manufacturing indicator?
- Smoothing removes erratic monthly noise and temporary survey volatility to reveal clear medium-term cyclical trends.
- Does this index cover service sector businesses?
- No, services and retail trade are excluded, as the measure is dedicated solely to smoothed manufacturing trends.
- What is the primary drawback of using a smoothed series?
- Smoothing introduces a minor reporting lag, making it better suited for trend confirmation than for catching sudden shocks.