What does the slope of the yield curve indicate?

It reflects market expectations regarding the future direction of the economy and monetary policy.

What sentiment does an inversion reflect?

It indicates that investors are more concerned about the short-term outlook than the long-term one, typically associated with slowing growth risks.

What is the lag time of this indicator when signaling?

The time elapsed between the signal appearing and actual shifts occurring is often prolonged and variable.

European Union 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread

Name: European Union 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread
Creator: European Central Bank (ECB Data Portal)
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

European Union 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread stood at 0.96% on Sep 2, 2026, according to European Central Bank (ECB Data Portal). It is one of the indicators in the Yields on government bonds table (Value · Daily), with a complete series running from Sep 6, 2004 to Sep 2, 2026. The complete series with an interactive chart, free to download.

Source: European Central Bank (ECB Data Portal)Last updated: Sep 04, 2026, 04:40 UTCCurated by Bui Thanh Phuc

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This indicator in the Yields on government bonds table

Indicator	02-09-2026	01-09-2026	31-08-2026	28-08-2026	27-08-2026	26-08-2026	25-08-2026	24-08-2026	21-08-2026	20-08-2026
10-year – 3-month spread	0.96	0.93	0.92	0.87	0.86	0.83	0.84	0.86	0.87	0.88
10-year – 2-year spread	0.48	0.48	0.48	0.47	0.49	0.49	0.49	0.48	0.51	0.49
1-year spot maturity	3.03	2.98	2.96	2.9	2.87	2.83	2.83	2.89	2.84	2.89

Understanding european Union 10-Year minus 3-Month Yield Spread

The European Union yield curve slope measures the spread between the yield of decade-long debt and ultra-short debt of a few months. This is a classic tool for measuring the slope of the yield curve, thereby detecting warning signals about the upcoming business cycle. Unlike single yields that only show currency values at a single point in time, this index reflects the expected relationship between the present and the distant future.

Frequently asked questions

What does the slope of the yield curve indicate?: It reflects market expectations regarding the future direction of the economy and monetary policy.
What sentiment does an inversion reflect?: It indicates that investors are more concerned about the short-term outlook than the long-term one, typically associated with slowing growth risks.
What is the lag time of this indicator when signaling?: The time elapsed between the signal appearing and actual shifts occurring is often prolonged and variable.