Japan Corporate Growth Expectations

Name: Japan Corporate Growth Expectations
Creator: 内閣府経済社会総合研究所「企業行動に関するアンケート調査」
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Cabinet Office ESRI Annual Survey of Corporate Behavior of listed companies: expected nominal and real GDP growth and industry demand growth for the next year, next 3 years and next 5 years, the break-even yen/dollar rate, expected capital investment and employment growth, and the overseas production ratio, by all industries, manufacturing and non-manufacturing, from fiscal 1973.

Source: 内閣府経済社会総合研究所「企業行動に関するアンケート調査」Last updated: Sep 25, 2026, 10:21Curated by Bui Thanh PhucAbout this data ↓

Indicator	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005	2004	2003	2002	2001	2000	1999	1998	1997	1996	1995	1994	1993	1992	1991	1990	1989	1988	1987	1986	1985	1984	1983	1982	1981	1980	1979	1978	1977	1976	1975	1974	1973
Expected nominal GDP growth of Japan9
Expected nominal GDP growth of Japan: next fiscal year (all industries)	2.88	2.94	2.26	1.71	1.74	1.55	1.09	1.58	1.67	1.61	1.56	1.72	1.71	0.84	1.09	0.31	-0.11	-1.54	1.57	1.7	1.44	0.94	0.65
Expected nominal GDP growth of Japan: next fiscal year (manufacturing)	2.79	2.78	2.24	1.71	1.89	1.49	1.1	1.6	1.67	1.6	1.55	1.7	1.76	0.87	1.1	0.36	-0.1	-1.63	1.57	1.68	1.43	0.92	0.7
Expected nominal GDP growth of Japan: next fiscal year (non-manufacturing)	2.94	3.07	2.29	1.71	1.61	1.6	1.08	1.56	1.67	1.61	1.58	1.73	1.66	0.81	1.09	0.24	-0.12	-1.44	1.57	1.72	1.44	0.97	0.6
Expected nominal GDP growth of Japan: next 3 years (all industries)	2.85	2.83	2.1	1.56	1.32	1.34	1.01	1.48	1.67	1.68	1.53	1.76	1.72	1.02	1.07	0.74	0.62	0.03	1.61	1.73	1.6	1.22	0.94
Expected nominal GDP growth of Japan: next 3 years (manufacturing)	2.76	2.65	2.06	1.58	1.4	1.29	1.04	1.5	1.68	1.68	1.54	1.8	1.75	1.09	1.07	0.73	0.64	0.09	1.59	1.7	1.57	1.18	0.97
Expected nominal GDP growth of Japan: next 3 years (non-manufacturing)	2.92	2.97	2.14	1.55	1.26	1.39	0.98	1.46	1.66	1.67	1.52	1.72	1.67	0.95	1.07	0.75	0.6	-0.03	1.63	1.76	1.64	1.27	0.91
Expected nominal GDP growth of Japan: next 5 years (all industries)	2.84	2.8	2.05	1.56	1.29	1.34	1.04	1.42	1.53	1.62	1.56	1.85	1.76	1.13	1.1	0.97	0.97	0.75	1.64	1.73	1.63	1.41	1.2
Expected nominal GDP growth of Japan: next 5 years (manufacturing)	2.75	2.59	2.01	1.59	1.36	1.28	1.07	1.45	1.57	1.68	1.59	1.91	1.82	1.2	1.11	0.93	1	0.73	1.61	1.69	1.59	1.36	1.2
Expected nominal GDP growth of Japan: next 5 years (non-manufacturing)	2.91	2.96	2.07	1.54	1.23	1.38	1	1.4	1.5	1.57	1.53	1.78	1.7	1.05	1.1	1.02	0.93	0.77	1.67	1.78	1.69	1.47	1.19
Expected real GDP growth of Japan9
Expected real GDP growth of Japan: next fiscal year (all industries)	0.94	1.21	1.25	1.25	1.48	1.4	0.84	1.12	1.23	1.02	1.07	1.29	1.26	1.15	1.61	0.88	0.44	-1.46	1.85	2.2	1.87	1.36	1.42	0.25	-0.37	1.32	0.89	-0.16	0.89	1.45	1.73	1.83	0.77	2.41	3.06	3.58	4.31	4.2	3.53	2.43	3.12	4.7	4.4	3.3	4.4	5.1	4.8	5.6	5.7	6.4	4.9	3.4
Expected real GDP growth of Japan: next fiscal year (manufacturing)	0.93	1.2	1.23	1.25	1.61	1.34	0.84	1.13	1.22	1.02	1.06	1.29	1.28	1.18	1.64	0.91	0.43	-1.6	1.86	2.23	1.88	1.36	1.44	0.26	-0.37	1.35	0.9	-0.17	0.88	1.46	1.75	1.83	0.76	2.43	3.06	3.59	4.31	4.2	3.52	2.4	3.07	4.7	4.4	3.3	4.4	5.1	4.8	5.6	5.6	6.4	4.9	3.3
Expected real GDP growth of Japan: next fiscal year (non-manufacturing)	0.96	1.22	1.26	1.25	1.36	1.46	0.84	1.1	1.24	1.02	1.08	1.28	1.24	1.12	1.57	0.85	0.45	-1.3	1.84	2.16	1.87	1.37	1.4	0.22	-0.37	1.27	0.86	-0.14	0.9	1.45	1.7	1.81	0.78	2.38	3.06	3.57	4.31	4.2	3.55	2.5	3.23	4.7	4.3	3.3	4.3	5	4.7	5.6	5.8	6.4	4.9	3.5
Expected real GDP growth of Japan: next 3 years (all industries)	0.98	1.23	1.26	1.19	1.06	1.16	0.81	1.06	1.19	1.06	0.99	1.35	1.41	1.13	1.47	1.17	1.01	0.22	1.84	2.12	1.86	1.52	1.47	0.69	0.61	1.53	1.29	0.76	1.42	1.77	2.04	2.2	1.7	2.92	3.38	3.5	3.8	3.65	3.22	2.72	3.42	4.5	4.3	3.7	4.5	5.2	5	5.6	5.8	6	5.4	5.3	6.4
Expected real GDP growth of Japan: next 3 years (manufacturing)	0.96	1.22	1.24	1.2	1.12	1.12	0.82	1.07	1.19	1.07	1	1.38	1.43	1.21	1.51	1.18	1.05	0.25	1.84	2.15	1.84	1.51	1.49	0.69	0.63	1.55	1.29	0.78	1.43	1.78	2.05	2.2	1.71	2.93	3.4	3.51	3.8	3.64	3.18	2.7	3.38	4.4	4.3	3.8	4.6	5.3	5.1	5.6	5.8	5.9	5.4	5.3	6.3
Expected real GDP growth of Japan: next 3 years (non-manufacturing)	1	1.24	1.28	1.18	1	1.19	0.8	1.06	1.2	1.05	0.99	1.31	1.38	1.05	1.43	1.16	0.97	0.18	1.83	2.08	1.89	1.53	1.45	0.68	0.56	1.5	1.27	0.72	1.41	1.75	2.03	2.2	1.68	2.89	3.34	3.49	3.79	3.66	3.29	2.75	3.49	4.5	4.3	3.7	4.5	5.2	5	5.6	5.9	6	5.4	5.4	6.4
Expected real GDP growth of Japan: next 5 years (all industries)	0.99	1.24	1.25	1.23	1.01	1.12	0.82	1.02	1.06	1	1.05	1.41	1.47	1.2	1.45	1.28	1.28	0.97	1.85	2.09	1.85	1.6	1.6	1.03	1.16	1.67	1.52	1.19	1.71	1.93	2.2	2.34	2.14	3.13	3.52	3.56	3.63	3.49	3.12	2.89	3.53	4.4	4.2	3.9	4.6	5.3	5.1
Expected real GDP growth of Japan: next 5 years (manufacturing)	0.98	1.2	1.24	1.25	1.07	1.09	0.84	1.03	1.08	1.04	1.06	1.46	1.51	1.28	1.49	1.26	1.34	0.97	1.84	2.1	1.83	1.59	1.6	1.03	1.18	1.7	1.5	1.23	1.72	1.96	2.19	2.32	2.14	3.13	3.54	3.57	3.66	3.5	3.08	2.87	3.5	4.4	4.2	3.9	4.5	5.3	5.1
Expected real GDP growth of Japan: next 5 years (non-manufacturing)	1	1.27	1.26	1.21	0.95	1.15	0.8	1.02	1.04	0.95	1.03	1.36	1.43	1.11	1.41	1.31	1.21	0.97	1.85	2.06	1.87	1.61	1.61	1.03	1.14	1.64	1.54	1.13	1.7	1.88	2.21	2.38	2.13	3.12	3.49	3.53	3.57	3.46	3.18	2.92	3.58	4.5	4.3	3.9	4.5	5.2	5.1
Expected nominal growth of industry demand9
Expected nominal growth of industry demand: next fiscal year (all industries)	2.98	2.67	2.28	1.92	1.96	1.33	1.22	1.54	1.64	1.29	1.31	1.47	1.26	0.78	1.04	0.42	-0.86	-2.88	1.39	1.59	1.17	0.86	0.66
Expected nominal growth of industry demand: next fiscal year (manufacturing)	2.73	2.41	2.15	1.7	2.09	1.54	1.18	1.52	1.67	1.34	1.31	1.63	1.39	0.75	1.13	0.78	-0.3	-3.62	1.56	1.8	1.29	0.95	1.1
Expected nominal growth of industry demand: next fiscal year (non-manufacturing)	3.18	2.88	2.39	2.11	1.82	1.14	1.25	1.57	1.61	1.23	1.31	1.3	1.11	0.82	0.94	-0.04	-1.5	-2	1.17	1.3	1.03	0.74	0.06
Expected nominal growth of industry demand: next 3 years (all industries)	2.92	2.65	2.26	1.87	1.6	1.36	1.21	1.5	1.61	1.43	1.31	1.6	1.35	0.78	1.05	0.56	0.27	-0.49	1.44	1.48	1.21	1.05	0.69
Expected nominal growth of industry demand: next 3 years (manufacturing)	2.62	2.35	2.11	1.82	1.65	1.36	1.22	1.51	1.61	1.45	1.33	1.65	1.4	0.85	1.21	0.85	0.73	-0.54	1.54	1.66	1.28	1.12	1.07
Expected nominal growth of industry demand: next 3 years (non-manufacturing)	3.15	2.89	2.38	1.91	1.55	1.36	1.21	1.48	1.62	1.41	1.29	1.53	1.3	0.68	0.87	0.19	-0.24	-0.42	1.31	1.24	1.13	0.96	0.2
Expected nominal growth of industry demand: next 5 years (all industries)	2.89	2.65	2.27	1.9	1.56	1.3	1.21	1.42	1.41	1.32	1.33	1.63	1.4	0.84	1	0.67	0.61	0.41	1.44	1.44	1.14	1.06	0.93
Expected nominal growth of industry demand: next 5 years (manufacturing)	2.6	2.31	2.13	1.92	1.62	1.25	1.24	1.44	1.39	1.38	1.39	1.64	1.41	0.95	1.14	0.91	0.94	0.41	1.56	1.59	1.23	1.09	1.28
Expected nominal growth of industry demand: next 5 years (non-manufacturing)	3.12	2.92	2.39	1.89	1.5	1.35	1.18	1.4	1.43	1.27	1.27	1.61	1.39	0.71	0.84	0.37	0.24	0.42	1.3	1.22	1.04	1.02	0.46
Expected real growth of industry demand9
Expected real growth of industry demand: next fiscal year (all industries)	1.45	1.47	1.56	1.53	1.68	1.17	1.03	1.22	1.29	0.88	0.96	1.21	1.02	1.01	1.42	0.76	-0.5	-2.65	1.46	1.83	1.47	1.13	1.03	-0.03	-1.09	1.02	0.7	-0.17	0.54	1.38	1.77	1.68	0.4	1.99	2.71	4.15	4.53	4.42	3.51	1.73	2.56	4.1	3.9	3	4	4.9	5	5.5
Expected real growth of industry demand: next fiscal year (manufacturing)	1.31	1.32	1.42	1.22	1.79	1.42	0.98	1.21	1.33	0.94	1	1.47	1.24	0.98	1.59	1.17	0.14	-3.4	1.61	2.04	1.6	1.25	1.42	0.11	-1	1.25	0.82	-0.36	0.81	1.37	1.83	1.83	0.24	1.86	2.33	3.99	4.23	4.26	3.28	1.28	2.55	4.5	4.2	3.1	4.1	5	5.1	5.4
Expected real growth of industry demand: next fiscal year (non-manufacturing)	1.56	1.59	1.68	1.8	1.57	0.94	1.08	1.22	1.25	0.83	0.92	0.94	0.78	1.04	1.23	0.25	-1.21	-1.73	1.27	1.52	1.32	0.98	0.5	-0.25	-1.23	0.66	0.52	0.13	0.13	1.4	1.67	1.4	0.69	2.22	3.4	4.44	5.13	4.72	3.93	2.64	2.58	3.4	3.4	2.7	3.7	4.8	4.8	5.6
Expected real growth of industry demand: next 3 years (all industries)	1.43	1.51	1.63	1.56	1.38	1.19	1.06	1.16	1.26	0.99	0.93	1.32	1.17	0.97	1.36	0.86	0.53	-0.24	1.54	1.74	1.49	1.27	1.07	0.49	0.34	1.33	1.2	0.94	1.3	1.84	2.04	2.18	1.74	2.95	3.58	4.15	4.2	3.79	3.12	2.45	3.02	4	4.1	3.6	4.3	5.3	5.3	5.5
Expected real growth of industry demand: next 3 years (manufacturing)	1.27	1.34	1.5	1.46	1.4	1.23	1.07	1.16	1.25	1.01	0.96	1.45	1.29	1.07	1.58	1.18	1.05	-0.3	1.66	1.94	1.56	1.33	1.39	0.7	0.51	1.55	1.32	0.87	1.5	1.74	2.06	2.17	1.62	2.85	3.39	4	4	3.62	2.9	2.24	3.04	4.4	4.3	3.8	4.5	5.3	5.4	5.4
Expected real growth of industry demand: next 3 years (non-manufacturing)	1.55	1.65	1.73	1.64	1.35	1.16	1.05	1.16	1.28	0.96	0.9	1.19	1.05	0.84	1.09	0.46	-0.05	-0.18	1.39	1.44	1.41	1.2	0.64	0.17	0.09	0.99	1	1.03	1	2.02	2	2.21	1.96	3.15	3.91	4.41	4.59	4.11	3.54	2.86	2.99	3.4	3.6	3.3	4	5.1	5.1	5.7
Expected real growth of industry demand: next 5 years (all industries)	1.42	1.52	1.63	1.65	1.34	1.15	1.06	1.11	1.08	0.9	0.95	1.34	1.25	0.99	1.27	0.91	0.81	0.59	1.52	1.69	1.42	1.26	1.19	0.83	0.96	1.46	1.42	1.43	1.67	2	2.15	2.26	2.19	3.22	3.78	4.18	4.02	3.64	3.04	2.67	3.21	4.1	4.1	3.8	4.4	5.3	5.4
Expected real growth of industry demand: next 5 years (manufacturing)	1.28	1.34	1.52	1.65	1.38	1.14	1.09	1.12	1.09	0.96	1	1.46	1.33	1.11	1.47	1.14	1.17	0.59	1.65	1.94	1.54	1.32	1.44	1.03	1.1	1.72	1.53	1.41	1.8	1.88	2.14	2.22	2.02	3.1	3.61	4.02	3.84	3.47	2.85	2.52	3.24	4.3	4.3	3.9	4.6	5.4	5.4
Expected real growth of industry demand: next 5 years (non-manufacturing)	1.53	1.67	1.72	1.65	1.3	1.16	1.02	1.1	1.08	0.84	0.9	1.22	1.16	0.84	1.05	0.61	0.41	0.6	1.34	1.33	1.27	1.18	0.84	0.52	0.76	1.07	1.25	1.47	1.49	2.2	2.18	2.35	2.49	3.43	4.09	4.46	4.36	3.95	3.41	2.97	3.16	3.5	3.7	3.5	4.1	5.1	5.3
Break-even exchange rate3
Break-even exchange rate (all industries)	132.2	130.05	123.02	114.45	101.52	99.8	100.19	99.76	100.58	100.45	103.19	98.98	92.24	83.86	82.01	86.3	92.87	97.33	104.74	106.55	104.54	102.6	105.89	114.87	115.32	106.96	106.51	112.66	110.35	106.19	103.97	107.77	117.49	123.99	126.2	129.66	133.29	128.12	140.86	175.4
Break-even exchange rate (manufacturing)	128.85	127.05	120.54	112.65	100.2	98.63	99.57	98.85	99.86	99.91	102.32	97.89	92.13	84.14	82.25	86.68	93.16	97.45	104.71	106.11	104.4	102.8	106.25	114.99	114.96	106.9	106.74	112.62	109.96	106.2	104.22	108.13	118.06	124.2	126.18	129.74	133.22	128.37	141.09	175.7	207.2
Break-even exchange rate (non-manufacturing)	142.52	138.68	131.31	121.4	108	104.6	103.04	104.55	105.19	104.17	109.02	107.18	92.97	81.76	80.52	83.65	90.81	96.48	104.92	110.71	105.78	100.6	103.34	113.54	119.22	107.44	104.21	112.96	113.08	106.06	101.91	104.83	112.99	122.38	126.32	129.1	133.77	126.21	139.55	173.4
Expected change in capital investment, next 3 years3
Expected change in capital investment, next 3 years (all industries)	6.32	6.26	6.79	6.36	6.04	4.06	4.05	4.83	4.8	4.39	4.3	3.86	4.17	3.46	4.11	3.4	1.36	-1.2	5.07	5.32	5.92	4.74	3.08	2.38	1.23	3.56	1.73	0.33	3.01	5.04	4.82	4.1	2.04	2.78	4.6	7.93	9.65	9.19	6.31
Expected change in capital investment, next 3 years (manufacturing)	6.2	5.98	7.1	6.62	6.7	3.36	3.73	5.49	4.72	3.95	4.66	4.19	4.39	3.45	4.87	3.87	0.86	-2.95	5.07	5.22	6.23	5.24	2.97	2.09	0.81	3.94	1.93	0.14	3.4	5.12	4.71	4.12	1.72	2.58	4.07	7.67	10.15	9.55	6.29
Expected change in capital investment, next 3 years (non-manufacturing)	6.41	6.47	6.53	6.12	5.4	4.69	4.38	4.15	4.87	4.83	3.97	3.5	3.92	3.48	3.21	2.82	1.94	0.91	5.07	5.45	5.54	4.13	3.24	2.81	1.88	2.98	1.4	0.63	2.39	4.91	5.02	4.05	2.62	3.15	5.54	8.41	8.72	8.52	6.34
Expected change in employees, next 3 years3
Expected change in employees, next 3 years (all industries)	3.18	3.45	3.53	3.28	2.8	1.85	2.52	2.7	2.6	2.51	2.26	1.88	1.73	1.01	1.04	0.97	0.39	-0.15	2.59	2.33	1.88	0.81	-0.83	-1.09	-1.92	-0.62	-1.68	-2.27	-0.68	-0.29	-0.56	-0.57	-0.65	1.14
Expected change in employees, next 3 years (manufacturing)	2.18	2.5	2.62	2.45	2.15	1.15	1.72	2.12	1.94	1.76	1.73	1.27	1.14	0.31	0.44	0.65	-0.28	-0.94	2.14	1.87	1.37	0.35	-1.24	-1.72	-3.01	-1.59	-2.42	-3.15	-1.12	-0.99	-1.3	-1.17	-1.53	0.66
Expected change in employees, next 3 years (non-manufacturing)	3.94	4.16	4.22	3.95	3.39	2.43	3.26	3.25	3.18	3.22	2.73	2.51	2.34	1.76	1.68	1.35	1.09	0.74	3.1	2.9	2.47	1.37	-0.31	-0.14	-0.25	0.83	-0.49	-0.98	-0.02	0.89	0.78	0.55	0.89	2.01
Overseas production ratio (manufacturing)3
Overseas production ratio: previous fiscal year, actual (manufacturing)	24.48	23.46	24.31	23.12	22.4	21.36	22.94	22.9	23.02	21.93	21.64	22.27	20.58	17.23	17.9	17.1	17.37	17.25	17.26	15.24	13.97	13.13	13.2	13.72	11.06	10.49	10.24	9.31	9.1	8.12	6.59	6.11	5.39	4.57	4.55	3.77	3.23	2.4	2.55
Overseas production ratio: current fiscal year, estimate (manufacturing)	24.45	23.62	23.86	23.7	22.27	20.51	22.72	22.69	23.29	21.43	22.11	22.92	21.62	17.69	18.39	17.95	17.76	17.49	18.21	16.08	14.78	13.96	14.08	14.6	11.98	11.24	10.79	9.85	9.9	8.96	7.42	7	6.04	5.04	5	4.33	3.85	3	3.12
Overseas production ratio: outlook in 5 years (manufacturing)	24.72	23.85	24.29	24.2	23.38	21.21	23.37	23.82	25.02	23.46	24.17	26.23	25.45	21.28	22.41	21.42	20.11	19.25	19.34	17.28	16.95	16.73	17.83	17.88	15.82	13.74	12.82	11.61	11.86	12.03	10.82	10.12	9.04	6.9	6.65	6.43	6.12	5.23	6.15
Share of firms producing overseas (previous fiscal year)4
Share of firms producing overseas (manufacturing)	65.3	63.3	65.8	66.2	67.8	64.6	67.4	68.3	70.7	65.1	67.5	71.6	69.8	67.7	67.6	67.1	67.1	67.3	65.9	63.2	59.6	63	62.1	59.4	60.4	61.1	58.3	56.7	55.9	53.9	48.3	47.4	43.3	40.8	40.3	36	34.2	27.7	32.5
Share of firms producing overseas (materials manufacturing)	67.3	61.7	61	67.7	70.3	65.5	66.2	64.9	70.1	67.9	66.9	74.2	76	68.7	67.8	64.7	66.7	67.7	63.6	60.5	58.4	62.9	62.3	59.6	62.1	63.5	59.7	56.9	53.4	51.8	43.7	45.3	37.9	32.5	32	28.5	28	21.3	26.5
Share of firms producing overseas (processing manufacturing)	73.8	74.7	74.6	75.5	75.6	73.5	76.6	80.8	80	73.7	77.2	78.5	76.4	73.2	76.6	75.8	74.9	75.5	73.2	72.5	69.8	73.6	69.1	65.4	67.3	67.4	67.9	66.7	66	65	60.2	59.2	55.5	54.2	53.9	48.7	47.2	38.2	39.5
Share of firms producing overseas (other manufacturing)	51.1	48.1	56.7	50.9	53.2	51.1	54.9	53.7	56.5	49	53.7	54.8	54.3	57.1	51.8	54.6	55.5	55.9	56.2	51.5	45.2	47.6	51.4	49.7	48.9	49.3	42.6	41.2	42.6	39.2	36.1	32.1	30.2	30.4	29.3	26.5	24.1	19.7	28.2

Latest reading

The latest reading is 0.99 % per year, for 2025. That is −0.3 pp from 2024. The series on this page is annual and runs from 1979 to 2025.

Latest: 0.99 % per year; 2025
vs previous period: −0.3 pp; 2024