Japan Business Outlook: Capacity
Quarterly index of firms judging their production capacity insufficient minus those judging it excessive, measured at quarter end, by enterprise size and by industry.
| Indicator | Q3-2026 | Q2-2026 | Q1-2026 | Q4-2025 | Q3-2025 | Q2-2025 | Q1-2025 | Q4-2024 | Q3-2024 | Q2-2024 | Q1-2024 | Q4-2023 | Q3-2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large enterprises3 | ||||||||||||||
| Large enterprises, all industries3 | ||||||||||||||
| Large enterprises, all industries: current quarter | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.7 | |
| Large enterprises, all industries: outlook for next quarter | 3.6 | 3 | 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |
| Large enterprises, all industries: outlook two quarters ahead | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | |
| Large enterprises, manufacturing3 | ||||||||||||||
| Large enterprises, manufacturing: current quarter | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1 | 0.3 | -0.4 | -1 | -1.3 | -0.8 | -2.2 | -0.9 | -1.4 | -0.5 | -0.8 | |
| Large enterprises, manufacturing: outlook for next quarter | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0.1 | -0.5 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | |
| Large enterprises, manufacturing: outlook two quarters ahead | 2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1 | 1.7 | |
| Large enterprises, non-manufacturing3 | ||||||||||||||
| Large enterprises, non-manufacturing: current quarter | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 2.8 | |
| Large enterprises, non-manufacturing: outlook for next quarter | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | |
| Large enterprises, non-manufacturing: outlook two quarters ahead | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | |
| Medium-sized enterprises3 | ||||||||||||||
| Medium-sized enterprises, all industries3 | ||||||||||||||
| Medium-sized enterprises, all industries: current quarter | 5.8 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6 | |
| Medium-sized enterprises, all industries: outlook for next quarter | 5.3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 6.1 | |
| Medium-sized enterprises, all industries: outlook two quarters ahead | 4.2 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | |
| Medium-sized enterprises, manufacturing3 | ||||||||||||||
| Medium-sized enterprises, manufacturing: current quarter | 8.1 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 4 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 5 | 2.2 | 4.5 | |
| Medium-sized enterprises, manufacturing: outlook for next quarter | 6.4 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 4.3 | |
| Medium-sized enterprises, manufacturing: outlook two quarters ahead | 5 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 5 | 6 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 | |
| Medium-sized enterprises, non-manufacturing3 | ||||||||||||||
| Medium-sized enterprises, non-manufacturing: current quarter | 5.2 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 6.5 | |
| Medium-sized enterprises, non-manufacturing: outlook for next quarter | 5 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 6.6 | |
| Medium-sized enterprises, non-manufacturing: outlook two quarters ahead | 4 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 5 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.8 | |
| Small and medium enterprises3 | ||||||||||||||
| Small and medium enterprises, all industries3 | ||||||||||||||
| Small and medium enterprises, all industries: current quarter | 9.7 | 10.4 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 8.6 | |
| Small and medium enterprises, all industries: outlook for next quarter | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.6 | |
| Small and medium enterprises, all industries: outlook two quarters ahead | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | |
| Small and medium enterprises, manufacturing3 | ||||||||||||||
| Small and medium enterprises, manufacturing: current quarter | 5.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 9 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 6.1 | 5.4 | |
| Small and medium enterprises, manufacturing: outlook for next quarter | 5.6 | 7 | 8 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 6 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 3 | |
| Small and medium enterprises, manufacturing: outlook two quarters ahead | 4.3 | 7 | 8.9 | 3 | 6.5 | 7 | 5 | 4.2 | 5 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.4 | |
| Small and medium enterprises, non-manufacturing3 | ||||||||||||||
| Small and medium enterprises, non-manufacturing: current quarter | 10.4 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 10 | 8.5 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 9.2 | |
| Small and medium enterprises, non-manufacturing: outlook for next quarter | 8.6 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 8 | 6.3 | 8 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 7.3 | |
| Small and medium enterprises, non-manufacturing: outlook two quarters ahead | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 6.1 |
Latest reading
The latest reading is 4.4, for Q3 2026. That is +0.6 from Q2 2026 and +1.5 from a year earlier. The series on this page is quarterly and runs from Q2 2004 to Q3 2026.
- Latest
- 4.4
- Q3 2026
- vs previous period
- +0.6
- Q2 2026
- vs a year earlier
- +1.5
About this data
Quarterly index of firms judging their production capacity insufficient minus those judging it excessive, measured at quarter end, by enterprise size and by industry. BSI is the share of firms reporting an increase minus the share reporting a decrease. The survey is run jointly by the Ministry of Finance and the Cabinet Office and covers firms with capital of 10 million yen or more. The next-quarter and two-quarters-ahead figures are the outlook recorded by the same survey round, not realised outcomes. Source: Ministry of Finance and Cabinet Office, Business Outlook Survey for Enterprises.
